Cepsa analyzes world trends and socioeconomic models in its 2030 energy map
2017-11-14 14 Nov 2017
- The Company presents the Cepsa Energy Outlook 2030 at ADIPEC, the world’s most important energy congress
- Outlook shows global oil demand 10% higher in 2030, although it will grow at a slower pace
- In 2030 solar and wind energy are forecast to represent 17.3% of global demand compared with 4.5% in 2015
- In total, world energy demand in 2030 will be 16,200 MT, compared with 13,800 MT in 2015
- For more information about Cepsa Energy Outlook, click on the link below
Cepsa has analyzed trends in society and world consumer habits to shine a light on what the energy mix will look like in the future. And the results of its research were presented today in its Cepsa Energy Outlook 2030 at ADIPEC, the world’s most important oil and gas congress held in Abu Dhabi.
Cepsa Energy Outlook 2030 is a research piece that presents what the energy mix will look like in 2030. The document answers questions such as what countries and technologies will meet fuel demands, what the impact of energy efficiency measures will be, or how mobility will evolve compared with private car ownership.
Héctor Perea, Cepsa’s Director of Strategy, said: “We must manage many uncertainties in the sector such as the penetration of renewables, the electric car, new technologies in the Exploration and Production sector, and more. In order to reflect on all these subjects and understand how these technologies are going to develop we have produced the Cepsa Energy Outlook, an exhaustive study that will help us to develop our strategy in the long-term.”
Regulators, Energizers and Consumers
To carry out this study from an energy perspective, Cepsa has grouped together regions in an original way into three categories that cover subjects such as regulation, production and energy consumption. The result is the groupings of Regulators, Energizers, and Consumers and the study shows how their development will be key in shaping the energy map of the future.
Regulators include all OECD countries (apart from Mexico) that are exposed to a regulated energy market and where energy demand is forecast to be below that of other regions. Energizers represent the leading countries in exports of energy, which consists of Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and the former Soviet Republics. Lastly, Consumers are Asian countries, given the high energy consumption they will see in the future.
The energy map for 2030
According to the Cepsa Energy Outlook 2030, electric cars will continue to become more competitive and occupy a larger market share, even if the combustion engine will continue to dominate with an 85% market share.
Similarly, world demand for oil will increase by 10%, but will grow at a slower pace due to fuel efficiency improvements and the incorporation of other sources of energy into the mix. Demand is seen rising due to a forecast increase in the middle class in Asia primarily.
Meanwhile, renewable energy will account for over half of the increase in electric energy that will be generated over the next 15 years, an unprecedented growth driven by the increase of solar and wind energy. Natural gas will occupy second place in the mix, but will only see its market share increase by 1% in world electric generation as its growth will be curtailed by the growth in renewables.
The world’s energy mix in 2030 will continue to be dominated by oil, gas and coal, even if renewables will make up considerable ground.
The report also shows that countries such as China and India, alongside other Asian countries, will lead energy demand, surpassing 1,770 tons of crude equivalent. Similarly, buildings and transport will overtake industry in global energy demand occupying a 58% share (9,300 Mtoe) compared with 37% (6,100 Mtoe), respectively. In total, world energy demand will total 16,200 Mtoe, and increase from 13,800 Mtoe in 2015.
Energy efficiency will also help to make an important saving in primary energy demand over the coming years, the survey showed.